Modelling in Urban and Regional Planning: Past, Present, and Yet to Come
نویسنده
چکیده
Modelling in Urban and Regional Planning has an eclectic history – drawing from economics, engineering, geography, physics, and many other fields. These various influences have been a great strength, providing cross-fertilization of ideas and helping to prevent practitioners from getting stuck in methodological or ideological ruts. However, it has also hindered the establishment of a strong shared modelling tradition. Without such a tradition, planners have struggled to create a compelling narrative about how cities evolve and function. Continuing interest in agent-based modelling and complex systems science might result in the creation of such a narrative, but it is not yet coherent enough to compete with the established engineering and economic narratives. Perhaps it is best that it does not compete with them, for they have been, and continue to be, immensely valuable in explaining and testing ideas about cities and how they function. Rather than seeking to create a competing narrative, planners can benefit by engaging with the dominant economic paradigm enough to clearly identify and articulate those areas not already well covered, and then focus research in those areas. Some obvious choices for this concentration of effort include dealing with market-failure and disequilibrium, modelling non-rational behaviour, modelling the role/actions of government, and understanding risk and resilience. Whatever areas we focus on, greater emphasis must be placed on testing and validation of models if they are to be more widely accepted.
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تاریخ انتشار 2011